The Bloom is Off the Chinese Rose
As reported in Monday’s WSJ, the IMF will soon declare that China’s currency is “fairly valued.” It’s about time that the world stopped beating up on China for not allowing its currency to appreciate even more than it already has (hint: 100%). However late it may be to the let’s-stop-beating-up-on-China party, this move by the IMF is effectively an official recognition of one of the biggest changes in global financial and economic fundamentals in recent years: the end of China’s great economic boom. China was never guilty of keeping its currency from appreciating enough; it was simply “guilty” of being the most attractive destination for foreign investment.
The World at a Glance – May: The Grey
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Muddled “grey” scenarios typify likely outcomes from current elevated Greek worries, but similar muddled outlooks are also typical in the global macro picture, including the timing of Fed hikes and further central bank easing around the world.
Nordic Outlook – May 2015
The global economy continues to be driven by changes in central bank policies. European Central Bank stimulus policies have had an unexpectedly rapid impact on optimism and inflation expectations, stabilising the outlook for all of Europe. In the United States, however, disappointments predominated early in 2015. In emerging markets, the signals have been mixed, although signs of weakness have dominated, especially since the growth slowdown in China has been somewhat sharper than expected. Overall, we have adjusted our 2015 global GDP forecast downward from 3.7 to 3.4%, mainly because we have lowered our US growth forecast from 3.5 to 2.7%.