‘We Are in a Currency War, But Nobody Has Admitted It,’ Strategist Says
‘We Are in a Currency War, But Nobody Has Admitted It,’ Strategist Says – CNBC
Central banks are currently embroiled in a covert currency war which is causing stagnation in foreign exchange markets, according to Thanos Vamvakidis, the global head of G-10 FX strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
- Currency Intervention: How Would the US Do It, and Would It Work? – Financial Times
- Wall Street Firms See Increased Chance That Trump Takes Action to Weaken the Dollar – CNBC
Britain is Bracing for an Economic Shock as No-Deal Brexit Draws Closer – Daily Telegraph
Get ready for a humdinger of an economic shock. That in any case is what policymakers at the Bank of England and the Treasury are doing.
As Fed Nears Rate Cut, Policymakers Debate How Deep, and Even If – Reuters
With the first U.S. interest rate reduction in a decade expected later this month, two Federal Reserve policymakers sketched out arguments on how deep the cut should be, even as a third said she needs more data before being ready to sign on at all.
- Powell Maintains Fed Pledge to Act to Sustain US Expansion – Bloomberg
- Betting Man Kyle Bass Wagers Fed Policy Will Turn Japanese – Financial Times
Germany’s Von der Leyen Secures Powerful EU Executive Top Job – Reuters
Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen secured European parliamentary approval on Tuesday to become the first female European Commission president on a platform of a greener, fairer and rule-based Europe.
China’s holdings of US Treasuries including notes, bills and bonds fell by US$2.8 billion in May to US$1.11 trillion. The dip in May was the third consecutive month of declines, leaving China’s holdings at the smallest since May 2017.
US, Japan Eye Possible Small Trade Deal by September – Reuters
The United States and Japan are working on a trade deal involving agriculture and autos that could be agreed by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when they meet in New York in September, three industry sources familiar with the discussions said.
Regulatory News
Reinvent International Monetary Order or Face Chinese Dominance: France – Reuters
France’s finance minister said the post-war international monetary order needed to be reinvented or become increasingly dominated by China.
Australia Bank Watchdog Faces Funding Challenge as it Gets New Powers – Reuters
Australia’s banking watchdog vowed to be tougher with the entities it oversees but needs more funds to carry out its work, its chairman said, after a government report recommended the regulator be more forceful and less discreet.
Lagarde Resigns as IMF Chief, Starting Race for Her Successor – Reuters
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde submitted her resignation from the global crisis lender on Tuesday, citing more clarity about her nomination to lead the European Central Bank as European legislators approved a new top bureaucrat.
HSBC Lifts Ban on Personal Mobile Phones for Traders – Financial News
Regulators have been pushing banks to ensure they have appropriate controls in place around the use of personal devices.
Participants Should “Avoid” Eonia – ECB Working Group – FOW
The euro risk-free-rates working group said participants should “avoid entering into new contracts referencing Eonia”.
Crypto News
Bitcoin Tumbles as US Senators Grill Facebook on Crypto Plans – Reuters
The cryptocurrency market took a beating on Tuesday with bitcoin losing over 10% in value after US lawmakers grilled Facebook on its cryptocurrency plans, as political and regulatory scrutiny of digital coins intensifies.
- Key Takeaways from Day One of the Libra Hearings – Profit & Loss
- Why Facebook’s Libra Cryptocurrency has Banks and Regulators Scrambling to Respond– South China Morning Post
Donald Trump’s Bitcoin Takedown Signals Global Currency War – Yahoo Finance
US President Donald Trump’s tweet attacking bitcoin highlights his increasing interest in controlling global currency markets — an interest that could create a “new world order” in foreign exchange.
G-7 Finance Chiefs to Tackle Cryptocurrency Risks, Digital Tax at Paris Summit – Marketwatch
Finance officials from the Group of Seven rich democracies will weigh risks from new digital currencies and debate how to tax tech companies like Google and Amazon when they meet at a chateau north of Paris.
Tether’s $5 Billion Error Exposes Crypto Market’s Fragility – Wall Street Journal
Investors got a reminder that the market infrastructure for trading cryptocurrency is still under construction.
Are Hedge Funds Placing a Big Short in Booming Bitcoin? – Financial News
Hedge funds and other big traders are betting that bitcoin will fall, even as the digital currency has risen above $10,000 on a new wave of crypto-optimism.
Company News
CTAs Bounce Back in June – Profit & Loss
Commodity Trading Advisors posted a 1.59% return in June, according to the Barclay CTA Index compiled by BarclayHedge.
Ongoing market volatility stemming from Brexit, trade wars, and other supply chain disruptions resulted in $23.39 billion in foreign exchange losses for publicly traded North American companies during the first quarter of 2019, according to the new Kyriba Currency Impact Report.
Global Macro Hedge Funds Struggle to Regain Top Form – Financial News
Global macro, the hedge-fund style that made George Soros and Alan Howard famous, is struggling to recover from a dire 2018 — with one investor lamenting that top funds are “just not there any more”.
The Lawyer Thrust into the Front Line of Deutsche Clean-Up – Financial Times
Stefan Simon advised the bank on Libor scandal — now he is its head of regulation.
Tech Giants Draw Fire in Congress – Wall Street Journal
Concerns about the power of the major technology companies echoed across the nation’s capital on Tuesday, with politicians in both parties demanding more regulatory scrutiny of the tech giants’ reach and plans for expansion.
Market Savvy
Time for ECB to Admit its Existing Policy Arsenal is Exhausted – Financial Times
Who does the European Central Bank work for? It sounds like an absurd question, but the market finds itself in an absurd situation. The soft patch in Europe has investors clamouring for the ECB to act — yet not one of those same investors believes interest rate cuts or quantitative easing will have a beneficial impact.
Thai Central Bank Says Cutting Policy Rate May Not Have Much Impact – Reuters
Thailand’s real interest rates are low compared with those of its regional peers, so cutting the benchmark rate may not have much impact, the central bank said.
Does Investing in Emerging Markets Still Make Sense? – Financial Times
Two controversial departures of high-ranking technocrats in the space of three days, one in Ankara, the other in Mexico City, have served as reminders of the high-risk nature of investing in emerging markets.
Rationalising Buy Side Adoption of the FX Global Code
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Rationalising Buy Side Adoption of the FX Global Code – Profit & Loss
The changing nature of foreign exchange markets, not least the day-to-day participation of the buy side, offers a good rationale for why buy side firms should sign a Statement of Commitment to the FX Global Code.
Read MoreRays of Light for Fixed Income Leaders
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Rays of Light for Fixed Income Leaders – Financial News (subscription)
Fixed income is not a story of universal gloom, but increased market concentration means the big Wall Street banks are outpacing smaller European rivals
Read MoreAttacks by Trump Risk Damaging the Fed’s Credibility
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Attacks by Trump Risk Damaging the Fed’s Credibility – Financial Times (subscription)
Investors have been remarkably calm about the mounting political pressures on the Federal Reserve, the world’s most important central bank, in sharp contrast to what has been seen historically in advanced countries, and to what emerging economies continue to experience.
SocGen to Shrink Trading Unit, Cut Costs after Market Rout
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SocGen to Shrink Trading Unit, Cut Costs after Market Rout – Bloomberg
The Paris-based bank is replacing its global markets head and will review less profitable fixed income and currencies activities after a 29 percent decline in fourth quarter revenue.
Read MoreWill Currency Traders’ Brexit Bets Reflect Pessimistic Europe?
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Will Currency Traders’ Brexit Bets Reflect Pessimistic Europe? – Financial Times
Sterling markets and Europe’s policymakers clearly do not see eye to eye. Analysts say that the positive risks to the currency now outweigh the negatives, while continental European officials say preparations for the UK crashing out of the single market without a deal are under way.
Read MoreSo Bad It’s Good: Markets See Silver Lining in Brexit Rejection
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So Bad It’s Good: Markets See Silver Lining in Brexit Rejection – Bloomberg
Prime Minister Theresa May’s record defeat in Parliament over her Brexit divorce deal provoked a curious response from markets: Optimism.
- What Brexit’s Jumbled Politics Mean for Markets – The Wall Street Journal (subscription)
- JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says Hard Brexit Would Be a ‘Disaster’ for Britain – Bloomberg
FXPA Welcomes Fifth Third Bank as Associate Member
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FXPA Welcomes Fifth Third Bank as Associate Member – FXPA
The Foreign Exchange Professionals Association (FXPA) is pleased to announce the addition of Fifth Third Bank as the newest Associate level member of the FX trade group.
Read MoreNew York Fed Publishes Policy on Confidential Market Information
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New York Fed Publishes Policy on Confidential Market Information – Profit & Loss
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has taken the step of publishing a statement detailing how it handles confidential information from
Volatility: How ‘Algos’ Changed the Rhythm of the Market
Volatility: How ‘Algos’ Changed the Rhythm of the Market – Financial Times (subscription)
Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.
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