Markets Need to Wake Up to the Risk of US Dollar Intervention (opinion) – Financial Times

Investors are, belatedly, catching up with the real risk that US authorities will try to weaken the dollar.

South Korea Central Bank Surprises with Rate Cut, Likely to Loosen Again – Reuters

South Korea’s central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday, and shaved this year’s growth forecast to the lowest in a decade, as a brewing dispute with Japan piled more pressure on the trade-dependent economy.

No Deal Brexit ‘Will Send Britain into Recession’ – The Times

Britain will slip into recession next year and the economy will be 3 per cent smaller if there is a no-deal Brexit, the UK’s official economic forecaster is expected to say today.

Sliding Japan Exports, Manufacturing Gloom Heighten Economic Risks – Reuters

Japan’s exports fell yet again in June, while manufacturers’ confidence crumbled to a three-year low this month as a Sino-US tariff row, slowing China growth and rising trade protectionism heaped pressure on the world’s third-biggest economy.

Australia Jobless Rate Stuck at 5.2%, Signals More Work for RBA – Reuters

Australian full-time employment surged in June but the jobless rate stayed stuck at 5.2% for a third straight month as more people looked for work, a sign of spare capacity that argues for more policy stimulus.

US-China Talks Stuck in Rut Over Huawei – Wall Street Journal

Progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal has stalled while the Trump administration determines how to address Beijing’s demands that it ease restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co., people familiar with the talks said.

Brazil Eyes Stimulus Package to Mark 200 Days of Bolsonaro’s Government – Reuters

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said his government will announce an economic stimulus package this week to revive flagging growth, confirming earlier media reports, in an effort to mark the first 200 days of his administration.

Macri’s Hopes Brighten as Argentina’s Economy Improves – Financial Times

A rise in the peso and slowdown in inflation buoys president after a rough patch.

The Economic Signs are Moving Against the Fed’s Expected Rate Cut: ‘It Just Doesn’t Smell Right’ – CNBC

If the Federal Reserve follows through on strong hints that it will be cutting interest rates in late July, it will do so in the face of a powerful consumer, a record-breaking stock market and an increasingly difficult case to make for easier monetary policy.

What to Expect from President von der Leyen – Financial Times

Ursula von der Leyen will be the first female European Commission president, the first German in half a century, and the first to be confirmed by a majority so small it can be counted on two hands. 

Regulatory News

What the Next Unfair Dismissal Trails are Likely to Tell Us About Banks’ FX Business Models (opinion) – Profit & Loss

The FX trader dismissals, indeed the entire chatroom related scandal in FX, would make a great case study for business management schools and if that is the case, then three impending cases provide much fuel for debate.

IMF Front-Runner List to Replace Lagarde Narrows to Eurozone Candidates – Wall Street Journal

The list of front-runners to succeed Christine Lagarde as head of the International Monetary Fund has narrowed to four eurozone officials, according to several senior European officials.

EU’s Capital Markets Union Will Not Make Sense Without London at its Heart – Financial News

Brexit may end up in bitter acrimony, or in happy cooperation. But whichever way it goes, the UK and the European Union will have to find a way to sort out the complex overlaps of their financial relationship.

New CFTC Chairman Names Senior Staffers – Profit & Loss

New Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Heath Tarbert has announced a swathe of senior appointments in his first week in charge of the US regulator.

Crypto News

The Libra Hearings, Part Deux – Profit & Loss

Today it was the turn of the US House Committee on Financial Services putting Facebook’s proposed cryptocurrency, libra, under the microscope, and it was a vast improvement on yesterday’s hearing in the Senate.

Japan to Lead Development of SWIFT Network for Cryptocurrency – Reuters

Japan’s government is leading a global push to set up an international network for cryptocurrency payments, similar to the SWIFT network used by banks, in an effort to fight money laundering, a person familiar with the plan said on Thursday.

Bitcoin Loses Almost a Third of Its Value as Libra Hype Fades – Wall Street Journal

Facebook Inc.’s struggle to convince lawmakers it can create a viable cryptocurrency is rubbing off on bitcoin.

G7 Finance Chiefs Pour Cold Water on Facebook’s Digital Coin Plans – Reuters

Group of Seven finance chiefs cast a cloud over prospects for Facebook’s Libra digital coin on Wednesday, insisting tough regulatory problems would have to be worked out first.

Company News

Kurk New FX COO at Northern Trust – Profit & Loss

Northern Trust has named Marisa Kurk as chief operating officer of its global FX business.

Steve Cohen’s Point72 Loses Long-Tenured Money Managers – Wall Street Journal

About 20 portfolio managers have left Steven A. Cohen’s hedge-fund firm this year, including several who worked with Mr. Cohen for more than a decade, according to people familiar with the matter.

Deutsche Bank’s Head of Fixed Income Trading Leaves – Financial News

Deutsche Bank’s global head of fixed income has left the German bank just more than a week after it announced a sweeping restructure that handed control of its bond-trading business back to Ram Nayak, who was promoted to co-president of corporate and investment banking in May 2018.

New Change FX Links with Lucera Connect – Profit & Loss

New Change FX’s regulated benchmarks and other data products are now available on the Lucera Connect network, allowing for rapid provisioning to existing Lucera Connect clients and workflow integration to LumeFX deployments.

Market Savvy

Short Bets on Most Asian Currencies Recede on Fed Rate-Cut Prospects – Reuters

Investors cut bearish bets on most Asian units and went long on the rupiah for the first time in nearly three months, a Reuters poll showed, as hopes of the U.S. Federal Reserve trimming interest rates weakened prospects for the greenback.

China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas – Wall Street Journal

New data showing the toll trade tensions are taking on China’s economy are merely a symptom of a more serious malaise: The country’s state-led growth model is running out of gas. 

Dollar Slips as US Yields Decline on Risk Aversion – Reuters

The dollar slipped on Thursday as risk aversion in the broader markets pushed benchmark US yields to a nine-day low.

ECB to Cut Rates in September, QE 2.0 Still on the Cards – Reuterspoll

The European Central Bank will cut its deposit rate in September after signaling a bias to do so this month, according to economists in a Reuters poll who do not expect a turnaround in the euro zone’s economic fortunes any time soon.