Markets Need to Wake Up to the Risk of US Dollar Intervention (opinion) – Financial Times
Investors are, belatedly, catching up with the real risk that US authorities will try to weaken the dollar.
South Korea Central Bank Surprises with Rate Cut, Likely to Loosen Again – Reuters
South Korea’s central bank delivered a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday, and shaved this year’s growth forecast to the lowest in a decade, as a brewing dispute with Japan piled more pressure on the trade-dependent economy.
No Deal Brexit ‘Will Send Britain into Recession’ – The Times
Britain will slip into recession next year and the economy will be 3 per cent smaller if there is a no-deal Brexit, the UK’s official economic forecaster is expected to say today.
- Morgan Stanley: Pound Could Hit Parity Against Dollar After No-Deal Brexit – The Guardian
- Brexit: UK ‘Will Have to Face Consequences’ in Event of No Deal – BBC
- UK Lawmakers to Vote on Latest Bid to Try to Prevent a No-Deal Brexit – Reuters
Sliding Japan Exports, Manufacturing Gloom Heighten Economic Risks – Reuters
Japan’s exports fell yet again in June, while manufacturers’ confidence crumbled to a three-year low this month as a Sino-US tariff row, slowing China growth and rising trade protectionism heaped pressure on the world’s third-biggest economy.
Australia Jobless Rate Stuck at 5.2%, Signals More Work for RBA – Reuters
Australian full-time employment surged in June but the jobless rate stayed stuck at 5.2% for a third straight month as more people looked for work, a sign of spare capacity that argues for more policy stimulus.
US-China Talks Stuck in Rut Over Huawei – Wall Street Journal
Progress toward a U.S.-China trade deal has stalled while the Trump administration determines how to address Beijing’s demands that it ease restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co., people familiar with the talks said.
- The US-China Trade War Has Produced More Losers Than Winners – South China Morning Post
- Tensions Between US-China Over Trade, Technology ‘Persistent’, Could Last for Years, BlackRock Says – South China Morning Post
Brazil Eyes Stimulus Package to Mark 200 Days of Bolsonaro’s Government – Reuters
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said his government will announce an economic stimulus package this week to revive flagging growth, confirming earlier media reports, in an effort to mark the first 200 days of his administration.
Macri’s Hopes Brighten as Argentina’s Economy Improves – Financial Times
A rise in the peso and slowdown in inflation buoys president after a rough patch.
If the Federal Reserve follows through on strong hints that it will be cutting interest rates in late July, it will do so in the face of a powerful consumer, a record-breaking stock market and an increasingly difficult case to make for easier monetary policy.
What to Expect from President von der Leyen – Financial Times
Ursula von der Leyen will be the first female European Commission president, the first German in half a century, and the first to be confirmed by a majority so small it can be counted on two hands.
Regulatory News
The FX trader dismissals, indeed the entire chatroom related scandal in FX, would make a great case study for business management schools and if that is the case, then three impending cases provide much fuel for debate.
IMF Front-Runner List to Replace Lagarde Narrows to Eurozone Candidates – Wall Street Journal
The list of front-runners to succeed Christine Lagarde as head of the International Monetary Fund has narrowed to four eurozone officials, according to several senior European officials.
EU’s Capital Markets Union Will Not Make Sense Without London at its Heart – Financial News
Brexit may end up in bitter acrimony, or in happy cooperation. But whichever way it goes, the UK and the European Union will have to find a way to sort out the complex overlaps of their financial relationship.
New CFTC Chairman Names Senior Staffers – Profit & Loss
New Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Heath Tarbert has announced a swathe of senior appointments in his first week in charge of the US regulator.
Crypto News
The Libra Hearings, Part Deux – Profit & Loss
Today it was the turn of the US House Committee on Financial Services putting Facebook’s proposed cryptocurrency, libra, under the microscope, and it was a vast improvement on yesterday’s hearing in the Senate.
Japan to Lead Development of SWIFT Network for Cryptocurrency – Reuters
Japan’s government is leading a global push to set up an international network for cryptocurrency payments, similar to the SWIFT network used by banks, in an effort to fight money laundering, a person familiar with the plan said on Thursday.
Bitcoin Loses Almost a Third of Its Value as Libra Hype Fades – Wall Street Journal
Facebook Inc.’s struggle to convince lawmakers it can create a viable cryptocurrency is rubbing off on bitcoin.
G7 Finance Chiefs Pour Cold Water on Facebook’s Digital Coin Plans – Reuters
Group of Seven finance chiefs cast a cloud over prospects for Facebook’s Libra digital coin on Wednesday, insisting tough regulatory problems would have to be worked out first.
Company News
Kurk New FX COO at Northern Trust – Profit & Loss
Northern Trust has named Marisa Kurk as chief operating officer of its global FX business.
Steve Cohen’s Point72 Loses Long-Tenured Money Managers – Wall Street Journal
About 20 portfolio managers have left Steven A. Cohen’s hedge-fund firm this year, including several who worked with Mr. Cohen for more than a decade, according to people familiar with the matter.
Deutsche Bank’s Head of Fixed Income Trading Leaves – Financial News
Deutsche Bank’s global head of fixed income has left the German bank just more than a week after it announced a sweeping restructure that handed control of its bond-trading business back to Ram Nayak, who was promoted to co-president of corporate and investment banking in May 2018.
New Change FX Links with Lucera Connect – Profit & Loss
New Change FX’s regulated benchmarks and other data products are now available on the Lucera Connect network, allowing for rapid provisioning to existing Lucera Connect clients and workflow integration to LumeFX deployments.
Market Savvy
Short Bets on Most Asian Currencies Recede on Fed Rate-Cut Prospects – Reuters
Investors cut bearish bets on most Asian units and went long on the rupiah for the first time in nearly three months, a Reuters poll showed, as hopes of the U.S. Federal Reserve trimming interest rates weakened prospects for the greenback.
China’s State-Driven Growth Model Is Running Out of Gas – Wall Street Journal
New data showing the toll trade tensions are taking on China’s economy are merely a symptom of a more serious malaise: The country’s state-led growth model is running out of gas.
Dollar Slips as US Yields Decline on Risk Aversion – Reuters
The dollar slipped on Thursday as risk aversion in the broader markets pushed benchmark US yields to a nine-day low.
ECB to Cut Rates in September, QE 2.0 Still on the Cards – Reuterspoll
The European Central Bank will cut its deposit rate in September after signaling a bias to do so this month, according to economists in a Reuters poll who do not expect a turnaround in the euro zone’s economic fortunes any time soon.