Top Headlines 

Attacks by Trump Risk Damaging the Fed’s Credibility – Financial Times (subscription)

Investors have been remarkably calm about the mounting political pressures on the Federal Reserve, the world’s most important central bank, in sharp contrast to what has been seen historically in advanced countries, and to what emerging economies continue to experience.

 

• Trump’s Fed Attacks Cast Chill at Global Finance Gathering – Bloomberg
• Would a Political Fed Save the World? – Reuters

Market Impact: Friend or Foe? – Profit & Loss
Speakers at the Profit & Loss Forex Network New York event highlighted that how you define, measure and respond to market impact when trading FX depends on a number of different variables.

US-China Trade Pact Takes Aim at Currency Manipulation – Wall Street Journal (subscription)
As part of a prospective deal on trade, the U.S. and China have agreed to measures that American officials say will deter Beijing from currency manipulation by requiring greater disclosure of economic actions, according to current and former officials familiar with the negotiations.

Investors Look to Emerging Markets Amid IMF’s Prognosis – Financial Times (subscription)
“Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery” — the subtitle of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, published this week — is as good an attempt as any to capture the spirit of the age.

The Pound’s ‘Breathless Marathon’ Tests Traders’ Nerves – Financial Times (Subscription)
One joke among currency traders is that GBP — their code for the pound — now stands for the Great British Peso, an allusion to the UK’s growing reputation as an unpredictable emerging market.

In the FICC of It (podcast) – Profit & Loss
In this week’s podcast we discuss confirmation that Deutsche Borse is in talks to take over certain assets of Refinitiv’s FX business, and why one reported deal would be “madness”; the future landscape for spot and FX swap trading; a survey on AI that allows us to air our latent scepticism; and an IMF report that reiterates widespread concerns over liquidity and volatility levels in markets.

EU Countries Back Start of Trade Negotiations with United States – Reuters 
European Union countries gave final clearance on Monday to start formal trade talks with the United States after months of delay due to resistance from France.

Draghi Sticks to Cautious Optimism About Euro-Area Bounceback – Bloomberg 
Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic note about the prospects for a rebound in the euro-area economy this year, saying some of the factors that have held back growth appear to be waning.

Regulatory News Conduct in Business Needs Regulating Like Conduct in Banking – Financial Times (subscription) The future of the Serious Fraud Office’s case against four former Barclays directors is unclear.  City Fears Over Corbyn Resurface After Brexit Delay – Financial News The six-month delay to Brexit has reignited fears in the City that Jeremy Corbyn will become the next prime minister of the UK, with concerns his arrival will send markets into freefall and cause hundreds of billions of pounds to leave the country. Regulators Press Deutsche Bank to Shrink US Investment Bank – Financial Times (subscription) Regulators are calling on Deutsche Bank to further shrink its US investment bank, increasing the pressure on chief executive Christian Sewing to take more decisive action at the failing unit. City Pressure Group Launches Worldwide Whistleblowers Network – Financial News  A City campaign group has launched a global network for bankers and investment professionals who want to report serious wrongdoing at work, claiming there is a lack of support for would-be whistleblowers.

Crypto News  Is Bitcoin About to Move Again as Crypto Markets Awaken? – NewsBTC  Weekends are usually pretty quiet for crypto markets. Unlike forex, digital assets can be traded around the clock and at weekends but old habits appear to die hard for traders. As we enter a new week there are big expectations for Bitcoin which could well make a move. Bitcoin And Crypto Market Cap Hits Another Yearly High – Here’s Why –Forbes  Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market has been on a tear lately, rising some 38% over the last month as investors pile into bitcoin and some of its most popular alternatives including ethereum, Ripple’s XRP, litecoin, EOS, and bitcoin cash. Ripple Plagued by Fake Trades – How Crypto Purge Vindicates Bitcoin – CCN Is up to 93% of Ripple trading fake? One market monitor thinks so. Research Report Claims That Less Than 7% of Crypto is Owned by Institutions – NewsBTC  There has long been a belief amongst cryptocurrency investors that the entrance of institutional capital into the nascent crypto markets would be the event that triggers the next bull market, as institutions have access to investment capital that far exceeds that of a cumulative group of individual investors.

Company News  Deutsche Bank-Commerzbank Deal Might Rest on Mountain of ‘Badwill’ – Wall Street Journal (subscription) Deutsche Bank AG will likely depend on an obscure but valuable accounting quirk to make a deal for smaller rival Commerzbank AG workable. Large Fund Houses Slash Broker Research Spend After Mifid II – Financial Times (subscription) Fund houses including Janus Henderson, Amundi and Invesco last year spent significantly less on broker research — when compared with the original forecast by an investment professional association — as the investment industry reacted to higher regulatory costs and increased margin pressure. Why Middle Tier Banks’ Markets Business Will Continue to Struggle (Opinion) – Profit & Loss We are in the midst of yet another culling season within various banks’ Markets divisions and at some stage we have to ask the question, how long can this go on? Can these banks, without a regional speciality, really survive in today’s competitive market? UK Productivity Warning Rings Alarm Bells – Financial Times (Subscription) Britain is the only large advanced economy likely to see a decline in productivity growth this year, according to new research, a development the Bank of England governor has blamed on Brexit. FX Client Acquisition the Intelligent Way: Aussie Bank Goes Scientific – FinanceFeeds Behavioral science is a very important key when retaining clients. Australia’s Commonwealth Bank has now embraced it, so should FX brokers.

Market Savvy UK Economy Leans on Consumers as Brexit Drags on Business – Reuters  Moving slowly in the fog of Brexit and slowing global growth, Britain’s economy is increasingly reliant on consumers and their spending as business investment and exports fade. What Explains Dose of Pessimism Among Chinese Investors? – Financial Times (subscription) US-China trade talks weigh on stock benchmarks, wiping out gains made in the week. Asian Currencies Should Appreciate Together Against the Dollar – Financial Times (subscription) Henny Sender notes that the renminbi is used less in private transactions now then it was four years ago (“Dollar unchallenged for now as China falters in renminbi push”, April 4). The weights that Asian central banks assign to the renminbi in their implicit currency baskets are also lower now than they were four years ago. Instead, the US dollar reigns supreme. Canadian Dollar’s Bullish 2019 Run May Soon Run Out of Fuel – Bloomberg A surge of more than 40 percent in oil prices has helped make the Canadian dollar one of this year’s best performing major currencies. That resiliency could soon be tested if crude loses momentum.