Top Headlines

The Problem With the World’s Most Obvious Trade – Wall Street Journal (subscription)

This week should provide the perfect opportunity for betting on a stronger dollar, but not so fast.

Symphony Financial Messaging Set for Wide Rollout this Year – Goldman – Reuters

Symphony, the WhatsApp for the financial world, will significantly increase its user base this year at major institutions including a top asset manager, shareholder Goldman Sachs said on Monday.

Royal Bank of Scotland Loses Finra Arbitration Over Firing – New York Times

When a Wall Street executive is fired, it is usually done quietly. But a recent arbitration award has now shed a light on a termination that has caused an embarrassment for the bank.

China Foreign-Exchange Reserves Fall at Slower Pace – The Wall Street Journal (subscription)

China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to the lowest level in more than four years in February, as the central bank continued to tap into its stockpile of foreign currencies to shore up the yuan. /Bloomberg

No Evidence of Collusion in Foreign Exchange Markets, ComCom Finds – NBR

The Commerce Commission has finished looking into potential collusion among New Zealand’s foreign exchange traders without unearthing any evidence that would warrant enforcement.

Currency Speculators are Warming Up to the Dollar – MarketNews

Hedge funds and other currency speculators are adding to bets that the dollar will rise against its main rivals, suggesting that the U.S. currency’s renewed bout of strength may continue.

Emerging Market Currencies Show Signs of Life – Financial Times (subscription)

Stumbling for the last few months through a pitch-black forest, looking for a way out, foreign exchange investors may finally have found a flicker of light to follow. It is a barely discernible flame and it leads them to emerging markets.

Regulatory News

BoE says UK Banks within “Hair’s Breadth” of Capital Adequacy Target – Reuters

A Bank of England (BoE) policymaker said on Monday that Britain’s banks would not need much more capital to comply with its solvency rules, as the central bank tries to quell talk that another major increase in capital requirements is on the way.

Comptroller of the Currency Thomas J. Curry Discusses Global Financial Regulation, Cybersecurity and Money Laundering Risks – U.S. Department of the Treasury

Comptroller of the Currency Thomas J. Curry today discussed global financial regulation during his remarks at the Institute of International Bankers’ Annual Conference.

South Korea Not Fretting Over U.S. FX Manipulation Rule: Vice Fin Min – Reuters

South Korea’s vice finance minister said on Monday the country is not worried about new U.S. laws that allow Washington to bar countries from U.S. trade deals and government procurement contracts if they keep currencies artificially low.

Company News

Thomson Reuters’ Spot FX Volumes Dip In February – Profit & Loss

Although spot FX volumes were down year-on-year across Thomson Reuter’s platforms in February, overall FX volumes were up 28% from the same month the previous year.

Wall Street Bankers’ Average Bonus Falls by Most Since 2011 – Bloomberg

Wall Street’s average bonus fell 9 percent to $146,200 in 2015, the biggest drop since 2011, according to estimates by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli.

Further Exit from LCH – Profit & Loss

Basu Choudhury, who has served as executive director, head of product for ForexClear at LCH.Clearnet in London, is believed to have resigned his position at the end of last week.

Dalton Exits Citi – Profit & Loss

James Dalton, director of FX algo execution at Citi in London has resigned, sources say. 

Market Savvy

Trend-Following Hedge Fund Strategies Lead Performance in 2016 – Financial Times (subscription)

Computer-driven hedge funds renowned for “trend-following” are beating their highly paid human counterparts so far this year after struggling to make money in four of the past five years.

Why the Fed Isn’t Out of Ammo – Wall Street Journal (subscription)

The Federal Reserve actually has plenty of ammunition left, but it doesn’t work in its conventional weapons.

Easing Expectations Send Euro Lower – Reuters UK

The euro fell by around half a percent at the start of the run-in to a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday widely expected to ease monetary policy further to help shore up still shaky euro zone growth.

Press Releases

A Macroprudential Approach to Bank Capital: Serving the Real Economy in Good Times and Bad – speech by Alex Brazier – Bank of England

Your industry has known better starts to a year. Bank stocks down, volatility up, earnings disappointing. All ghosts of crises past. But one ghost has not returned to haunt us. Questions about returns haven’t translated as they’ve done before into questions about resilience.

CME Group Announces New Managing Director Roles

CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced the following Managing Director promotions, which were effective in February.

Industry Events

FX Post-Trade: Ripping Off the Band-Aid, 8 March, Profit & Loss/Markit Webinar

FX Week Australia, 10 March in Sydney, Australia

FIA: Boca 2016, 15-18 March in Boca Raton, FL

FOW: Derivatives World, 12-13 April in Hong Kong

FX Week FX Invest North America, 12 April in Boston, MA

Profit & Loss Forex Network London, 14 April in London, UK

Profit & Loss Latin America, 20 April in Mexico City

ACI World Congress 2016 – Indonesia, 26-30 April, Jakarta

Eurofinance:  Asia Treasury, 18-20 May in Singapore

Profit & Loss Forex Network New York, 26 May, New York City

FIA: IDX 2016, 7-8 June in London, England

Profit & Loss Scandinavia, TBD September, Copenhagen

Profit & Loss Forex Network Chicago, 28-29 September, Chicago, IL

Sibos 2016, 26-29 September in Geneva, Switzerland

FIA: Expo, 18-20 October in Chicago, IL