Johnson Increasingly Optimistic Brexit Deal Can be Agreed by End of the Week – Daily Telegraph
Boris Johnson is increasingly optimistic that a Brexit deal could be agreed before the end of the week as negotiators began work on a draft text in Brussels.
- Johnson Hit by Prospect of No Brexit Until 2020 – The Times
- Pound Dips as Traders Brace Themselves for Dramatic Swings – Financial Times
- What are the Final Roadblocks on the Path to an Elusive Brexit Agreement – The Times
- The Market’s Brexit Enthusiasm Is Exaggerated – Wall Street Journal
IMF Says Global Economy to Grow at Slowest Pace Since 2008 Financial Crisis – Market Watch
The International Monetary Fund is growing even more pessimistic about the global economy, as higher import tariffs are strangling manufacturing activity and international trade.
US-China Tariffs Drag Global Growth to Lowest in a Decade: IMF – Reuters
The US-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warns, but it says output would rebound if their duelling tariffs were removed.
US House Takes Hard Line on China Over Hong Kong, Huawei – Reuters
The US House of Representatives on Tuesday passed four pieces of legislation taking a hard line on China, three related to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and one commending Canada in its dispute over the extradition of a Chinese telecom executive.
Can China, US Agree on How to Enforce Terms of ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal? – South China Morning Post
Last week’s high-level talks in Washington appear to have made progress towards ‘phase one’ of a comprehensive trade deal, but the issue of enforcement has always been one of the thorniest issues between Beijing and Washington and led to the collapse of a talks in May.
Uncertainty Seen Persisting, Along with Fed’s Divide – Reuters
With two weeks to go until their next policy meeting, US central bankers appear unconvinced a partial US-China trade deal is enough to dispel the policy uncertainty that has weighed on economic growth for months.
- Fed’s James Bullard Cites Risk of Slowing Economy – Wall Street Journal
- Fed’s Daly Says Important to Get Inflation to Target – Reuters
China Unexpectedly Injects $28 Billion of Cash as Growth Slows – Bloomberg
China caught traders off-guard with a surprise injection into the financial system via loans to banks, ahead of data on Friday which is expected to show a further slowdown in the domestic economy.
Fed Paper Says Negative Rate Policy Can Provide Real Stimulus – Wall Street Journal
Negative interest rates are a viable tool to provide stimulus to economies that need it, and the US might have benefited from using it during the financial crisis, a new report from the San Francisco Fed says.
Italy Cabinet Approves 2020 Budget – Reuters
Italy’s government approved a draft 2020 budget in the early hours of Wednesday that aims to cut taxes for middle-earners and crack down on tax evaders, while holding the deficit at the same level as this year, government officials said.
China threatened to retaliate if the US Congress follows through with passing legislation that would require an annual review of whether the city is sufficiently autonomous from Beijing to justify its special trading status.
Germany to Tap All Fiscal Options in Case of Economic Crisis: Scholz – Reuters
Germany intends to stick to its balanced budget rules for now and boost spending without incurring new debt, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz told Reuters, adding that the government would use all fiscal options in a severe economic crisis.
US Carried Out Secret Cyber Strike on Iran in Wake of Saudi Oil Attack, Officials Say – Reuters
The United States carried out a secret cyber operation against Iran in the wake of the Sept. 14 attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, which Washington and Riyadh blame on Tehran, two US officials have told Reuters.
Doubts Grow Over Merkel’s Heir Apparent as German Chancellor – Reuters
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s path to succeed Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor seemed clear when she replaced her as leader of the governing Christian Democrats last December.
Regulatory News
UK Swaps Carrot for Stick in Libor Switch – Risk
BoE committee mulls policy action, which could include capital hikes on Libor exposures.
More Derivs Clearing Would Help RWA Levels: UBS – FOW
Moving half of derivatives to central clearing could lower sector RWA inflation the bank says.
Fed ‘Repo’ Plan Could Face Fund Manager Resistance – Financial Times
Money market funds that are among the largest holders of US Treasury bills say they are reluctant to sell them to the Federal Reserve, presenting an obstacle to the central bank as it seeks to increase the amount of cash in short-term lending markets.
BOJ Deputy Governor Calls for Collective Action on Libor Transition – Regulation Asia
Libor’s permanent discontinuation will be one of the “most significant events in global financial history”, BOJ deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya said.
Dimon Says Regulation Limited JPMorgan from Calming Repo Market – Bloomberg
JPMorgan Chase & Co. had the cash and willingness to calm short-term funding markets when they went haywire in mid-September, but the banking giant said regulations held it back.
Crypto News
Crypto Portfolio Will Analyse Twitter to Gauge Trader Sentiment – Bloomberg
The crypto market, known as one of the most rabid topics for discussion on Twitter, is getting a new tool to help gauge investor sentiment – using tweets.
Facebook’s Marcus Vows to ‘Move Forward’ with Libra, Add Members – Bloomberg
The Facebook Inc. executive responsible for the embattled Libra cryptocurrency said he doesn’t fault companies that pulled out of the project, adding that he’s optimistic more organizations will sign on despite intense opposition from politicians who seem to fear financial innovation.
- Facebook’s Diminished Libra Club Officially Launches – But Still has No CEO – Financial News
- Where it all Went Wrong for Facebook’s Libra – Financial Times
Squashing Libra Could Boost China’s Digital Currency – Coin Telegraph
Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have suggested that stifling Facebook’s Libra may leave the field open to China’s central bank digital currency to dominate in emerging economies.
Thrill-Seeking Drives Investors to Trade Crypto, Study Finds – Coin Desk
Investors who trade cryptocurrency also tend to take bigger risks in the stock market, suggesting they are seeking dopamine more than diversification, according to a recent study.
Company News
CLS Reports FX Volume Increase – Profit & Loss
CLS says the average daily traded volume submitted to the settlement service was $1.84 trillion in September, a 5.3% month-on-month increase and a 6.5% year-on-year increase.
Peer-to-Peer Forex Services Aim to Bypass Wall St Banks – Financial Times
Some of the biggest institutional investors in the foreign exchange markets are aiming to cut out Wall Street banks from their trades, saying that by linking up directly they could save hundreds of millions of dollars in charges.
The Fed Has Lightened the Load on America’s Banks – The Economist
In a flurry of activity, the Federal Reserve has approved several rule changes in the past few days. Yet there has been no regulatory bonfire, and such changes as there have been have mainly benefited smaller banks.
JPMorgan Flexes Muscle as Goldman Stumbles – Wall Street Journal
JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares touched a record high following a strong third-quarter earnings report, underscoring the continued solid performance of the largest US lenders at a time of global tensions and economic worries.
CME to Offer Real-Time Cloud-Hosted Derivs Data – FOW
CME Group will become the first derivatives marketplace to offer real-time futures and options market data using Google Cloud Platform, from mid-November.
Michael Hasenstab Fund Loses $3 Billion in a Miserable Quarter – Bloomberg
Franklin Templeton’s flagship Global Bond Fund lost $3 billion in the third quarter as two of its biggest investments soured.
Market Savvy
There is a $1.5tn Reason for the Yen Not Moving Higher – Financial Times
The yen’s “stubborn weakness” has been because of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund buying foreign assets, which has led to downward pressure on the currency.
Trump is selling loved-up negotiations but the trade complexities are unchanged. Beijing is wary of any currency deal reminiscent of the 1985 Plaza Accord while the US has yet to decide if it wants a truly free-floating yuan.
Inflation is Losing its Meaning as an Economic Indicator – The Economist
Inflation used to be the scourge of the world economy and the bane of American presidents – today the lethal assassin has gone missing.
Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation Won’t Deter November Rate Cut – New Zealand Herald
New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected third-quarter inflation won’t deter the Reserve Bank from cutting interest rates again with most economists expecting a 25-basis point rate cut in November.
South Korea Cuts Rates to Record Low in Bid to Boost Growth – Financial Times
The Bank of Korea on Wednesday cut its key policy rate by a quarter point to a record low of 1.25 per cent in a bid to shore up growth as the export-driven economy has been hit hard by global trade frictions and weaker chip prices.