Top Headlines

ESMA Publishes Responses to the Discussion Paper Benchmarks Regulation

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published the responses received to the Discussion Paper Benchmarks Regulation.

The Big Questions for Markets this Week – Financial Times (subscription)

A broadly weaker dollar has encouraged the foreign exchange crowd to provoke the Bank of Japan in recent weeks and buy plenty of yen. Inevitably, the BoJ will step in and sell plenty of yen — we have seen this picture many times.

Pound Seen Getting Scant Relief from Marginal Inflation Uptick – Bloomberg

The pound looks unlikely to get much of a boost next week even as traders get the chance to turn their attention away from the vote on Britain’s European Union membership and back toward the economy.

Chinese Groups Made Bets on Renminbi Weakness – Financial Times (subscription)

Some of China’s biggest state companies traded US-dollar debt for renminbi and ramped up dollar deposits in the second half of last year in a dual-pronged effort to eliminate higher US interest payments and bet on depreciation of the local currency.

China Guru Warns of ‘ERM-style’ Currency Crisis as Deflation Persists – The Telegraph

A top adviser to the Chinese government has warned that Beijing risks a currency blow-up akin to Britain’s traumatic ordeal in 1992, if it continues trying to defend its exchange rate peg amid a deepening deflation crisis.

The Yen’s Puzzling Surge, Explained in One Morgan Stanley Theory – Bloomberg

The yen’s surge this week to the strongest since 2014, which has confounded most currency traders and analysts, may be best explained through the prism of the bond market.

Beijing ‘Must Devalue Yuan by 15%’ to Avert Crisis – The Daily Telegraph

A top adviser to the Chinese government has warned that Beijing risks a currency blow-up akin to Britain’s traumatic ordeal in 1992, if it continues trying to defend its exchange rate peg amid a deepening deflation crisis.

Negative Rates Could Fuel Fresh ‘Boom and Bust’, IMF Warns – The Daily Telegraph

Negative interest rates could fuel another dangerous “boom and bust” cycle if policymakers start to rely on them to boost growth, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Regulatory News

Egypt, Saudi Arabia Sign 60 bln Saudi Riyal Investment Fund Pact – Reuters 

Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement late on Saturday to set up a 60 billion Saudi riyal investment fund among other investment agreements including an economic free-zone to develop Egypt’s Sinai region, Egyptian state television reported.

Company News

Hamilton Joins FastMatch – Profit & Loss

Well-placed sources say Nick Hamilton will start at trading venue FastMatch next week. Hamilton will be based in the company’s London office and will focus on, but not be limited to hedge fund and real-money clients. Hamilton quit his previous role in eFX sales at Citi in London. Prior to that, he worked in FX sales at EBS.

Comer Exits Deutsche? – Profit & Loss

Sources familiar with the matter tell Profit & Loss that Sean Comer, COO of FX at Deutsche Bank has resigned. Comer is believed to have left the bank in mid-March, after seven years in the role. He joined Deutsche Bank from Barclays where he was also COO of FX, having taken the role in 2004.

Hafeez Joins Nomura – Profit & Loss

Bilal Hafeez has left Deutsche Bank, where he was a global strategist and head of multi-asset research, to join Nomura. Hafeez, who had been at Deutsche since late 2002, joins Nomura as managing director, head of global G10 FX strategy. Nomura says that in this role, Hafeez and the G10 strategy team will “continue to provide support for our strong G10 FX franchise”.

Market Savvy

Analysts Predict Brexit Slump – Profit & Loss

While the UK’s national newspapers suggest that the peoples of both Britain and continental Europe are having a hard time making up their minds about Brexit, there was no evidence of any such ambivalence at yesterday’s Bloomberg FX16 conference in London.

Collateral Damage from a Delay to US Rate Rises – Financial Times (subscription)

If policymakers in the eurozone and Japan hoped to engineer a weaker currency by their aggressive expansion of monetary policy, they must be watching the latest moves in currency markets with dismay. Despite fresh rounds of quantitative easing and radical experiments with negative interest rates — usually associated with a weaker exchange rate — the euro and yen have rallied.

The Strange Case of the Missing Crisis – The Wall Street Journal (subscription)

Capital has been flowing out of emerging markets for several years, driven by slowing growth, tumbling commodity prices, and the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates. Oddly enough, no big emerging country has gone bust as a result.

C$ Bets Turn Bullish for first Time Since May Last Year – Reuters

Speculators have turned bullish on the Canadian dollar for the first time since May last year, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.

Press Releases

ESMA Publishes Q&A on CFDs and Other Speculative Products – MondoVisione

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published today a new question and answer document (Q&A) on the application of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) to the marketing and sale of financial contracts for difference (CFDs) and other speculative products to retail clients (such as binary options and rolling spot forex).

Japan Will Need Reforms to Ease Economic Blow of a Shrinking Workforce – OECD

Japan must make revitalising growth its number one priority with reforms to boost productivity and encourage more women and older people into jobs to compensate for its rapidly shrinking labour force, according to the OECD.

Tenth Progress Report on Adoption of the Basel Regulatory Framework

This updated Progress report on adoption of the Basel regulatory framework provides a high-level view of Basel Committee members’ progress in adopting Basel III standards as of end-March 2016. The report focuses on the status of adoption of all the Basel III standards (which will become effective by 2019) to ensure that the Basel standards are transformed into national law or regulation according to the internationally agreed timeframes.

Industry Events

FOW: Derivatives World, 12-13 April in Hong Kong

FX Week FX Invest North America, 12 April in Boston, MA

Profit & Loss Forex Network London, 14 April in London, UK

Profit & Loss Latin America, 20 April in Mexico City

ACI World Congress 2016 – Indonesia, 26-30 April, Jakarta

Eurofinance:  Asia Treasury, 18-20 May in Singapore

Profit & Loss Forex Network New York, 26 May, New York City

FIA: IDX 2016, 7-8 June in London, England

Profit & Loss Forex Toronto, 9 June, Toronto

Profit & Loss Scandinavia, 13 September, Copenhagen

Profit & Loss Forex Network Chicago, 28-29 September, Chicago, IL

Sibos 2016, 26-29 September in Geneva, Switzerland

FIA: Expo, 18-20 October in Chicago, IL