China’s Top Negotiator ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ About Reaching Trade Deal – Bloomberg

China’s chief trade negotiator indicated he was “cautiously optimistic” about reaching a phase one deal with the US, as two titans of American diplomacy in Asia warned of the dangers of escalating the tariff war.

• Currencies in Paralysis as Trade ‘Headline Fatigue’ Sets In – Reuters
• Why Now Is a Good Time to Start Worrying About a U.S.-China Trade Deal – Bloomberg

‘Phase One’ US-China Trade Deal May Not Be Completed This Year: Trade Sources – Reuters

Completion of a “phase one” US-China trade deal could slide into next year, trade experts and people close to the White House said, as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

• China Risks Hurting Itself by Hitting Back Against US – Bloomberg
• China Says Will Strive to Reach ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal with US – Reuters
• Kissinger Says US and China in ‘Foothills of a Cold War’ – Bloomberg

China’s Trade Dominance Dealt a Blow After US Gains – Financial Times

Analysts are tentatively calling it “peak China”. The country’s position as the leading global exporter for the past two decades has been dealt a blow after it lost ground to the US in the first six months of this year.

• Stalled US-China Trade Talks Raise Threat of Another Impasse
• US, China to Tie Tariff Relief to Failed Deal From May – Bloomberg
• Without a China Trade Deal, the US Will Hike Tariffs: Trump – Reuters

Trump, Powell Met at White House to Discuss Economy – Reuters

US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell met at the White House, their second meeting since Powell started the job in February 2017 and soon after became the target of frequent criticism from the president who had appointed him.

• Powell Tells Trump Policy Will Remain ‘Non-Political’ – Financial Times

Sterling Hits $1.2960 on Election Optimism; Short Positions Decline – Reuters

Sterling rose above $1.2960 on Monday after Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that all Conservative Party candidates in the upcoming election have pledged to back his Brexit deal. Johnson told the Telegraph newspaper in an interview published on Saturday that all 635 Conservative candidates standing in the UK election would vote in parliament to pass the withdrawal agreement.

Global Debt Surges Above $250 Trillion as U.S., China Lead Way – Bloomberg

Global debt hit a fresh record above $250 trillion in the first half of 2019, with China and the U.S. accounting for more than 60% of new borrowing, the Institute of International Finance said.

Jay Powell Sees Little Reason for December Rate Cut in Rebuff to Trump – Financial TimesFederal Reserve chairman Jay Powell told US lawmakers on Wednesday that he sees little reason to lower interest rates in December, despite coming under renewed pressure from President Donald Trump to loosen monetary policy.

• U.S. Dollar Steady as Dase for Fed Rate Pause Solidifies – Reuters
• Powell Sticks with View Rates are Likely on Hold But Flags Risks – Bloomberg
• Powell is Key for Traders Keeping One Eye on Impeachment Hearing – Bloomberg

Trump Impeachment Inquiry Enters New Public Phase – Financial Times

The impeachment inquiry into Donald Trump will enter a new public phase on Wednesday as two career diplomats testify before Congress in a televised hearing that Democrats hope will convince Americans that the US president is not fit for office.

Moody’s Says Tide of Populism is Putting World’s Credit at Risk – Bloomberg

A wave of social unrest — from Chile and Ecuador to Lebanon – has Moody’s Investors Service worried. The rating company said its 2020 outlook for global sovereign credit is negative, given unpredictable domestic and geopolitical risks and a push for populist policies that weaken institutions, help slow growth and boost the risk of economic and financial shocks. 

Brexit ‘Paralysis’ Leads Moody’s to Lower Outlook on U.K. Debt – Wall Street Journal

Moody’s Investors Service has cut its outlook for UK debt to negative, a potential step toward a credit rating downgrade. Moody’s cites “increasing inertia and, at times, paralysis that has characterised the Brexit-era policymaking process”.