Top Headlines
Dollar Hits Two-Week High After US-Japan Meeting – Reuters
The dollar hit a two-week high against the yen with another round of solid gains as investors focused again on the US reflation trade which dominated the aftermath of Donald Trump’s election in November but has stalled this year.
Donald Trump’s Anger at Asian Currency Manipulators Misses Target – Financial Times (subscription)
Evidence suggests Taiwan and South Korea, not China and Japan, are the worst offenders.
It’s 1980s All Over Again for FX Desks Looking at Trade Flow – Bloomberg
Currency traders accustomed to analyzing the Fed’s dot plot and monthly US jobs figures to divine the direction of the dollar are having to learn, or in some cases re-learn, a forgotten skill: how to scrutinize trade data.
Sterling Holds Up Against Nervous Euro, Eyes on CPI and Retail Data – Reuters
Sterling edged up, extending its winning streak against the euro for a sixth straight day after enjoying a boost from last week’s better-than-expected manufacturing and trade data.
‘Frexit’ Would Cost France €30bn a Year, Warns Central Bank Chief – Financial Times (subscription)
Marine Le Pen’s plans to take France out of the eurozone would raise the country’s debt costs by €30bn a year, the country’s central bank chief has said, in the latest major warning from France’s economic establishment over a prospective “Frexit”.
- Investors Are Waking Up to the Risk of a Le Pen Victory – Bloomberg
- Even a Le Pen Win Won’t Be Enough to Break Up Euro, Banks Say – Bloomberg
French Finance Minister Says ECB Never Tries to Manipulate Euro Rate – Reuters
The European Central Bank never tries to manipulate the euro exchange rate for trade or competitive policy reasons, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said in an interview, echoing other politicians rejection of US claims.
Spot Volumes Up: Overall Down at Thomson Reuters – Profit & Loss
Thomson Reuters says FX platforms handled $91 billion in January, a rebound from December, but significantly down on January 2016.
Brazil, Russia Get Top Marks in Emerging Market Survey – Bloomberg
In a survey of 16 investors and analysts conducted Jan. 23 to Feb. 1, the nations’ bonds and currencies got the strongest backing among 10 developing economies.
Re-Draw the Lines Between Retail and Institutional FX – Profit & Loss
Ever since the differences became blurred the reputational risks have increased.
The DNA of a Flash Crash – Profit & Loss
A new paper uses trade repository data to forensically analyse the Swiss franc de-pegging.
Derivatives Market is Short of a $3.7tn Lifeboat – Financial Times (subscription)
Central clearing has not proved a magic solution for systemic risk.
Regulatory News
EU Urges Trump Not to Turn His Back on Global Banking Rules – Bloomberg
The European Union’s financial-services policy chief urged US President Donald Trump not to walk away from global financial rules put in place since the crisis.
Trump Gets Freer Hand on Banks as Tarullo Departs – Wall Street Journal (subscription)
The Federal Reserve is about to lose an influential advocate of tougher banking regulation.
Bank of England Appoints Deputy Governor for Markets – Profit & Loss
Charlotte Hogg has been named deputy governor for Markets and Banking at the Bank of England.
Company News
Senators Question Goldman Sachs on Its Role in Trump Banking Policy – Reuters
In a letter to CEO Lloyd Blankfein dated Feb. 9 and made public on Friday, Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin asked for details on “lobbying” activities in the bank related to review of the Dodd-Frank Act and the Obama-era fiduciary rule on financial advice.
US Trial Set Over Bitcoin Exchange Linked to JPMorgan Hack Probe – Reuters
A Florida software engineer and a New Jersey pastor are expected to face trial in a case stemming from an investigation into a bitcoin exchange and a data breach at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
GTX to Offer Independent TCA – Profit & Loss
GTX has partnered with Ideal Prediction, an independent trading analytics and data science company, to offer its clients analytics aimed at optimising their FX trading.
Market Savvy
Rouble Hits 58 Per Dollar for First Time Since July 2015 – Financial Times (subscription)
The rouble climbed to its strongest level since July 2015, as the Russian Central Bank’s pledge to weaken the currency struggles to convince markets.
Asian Currencies Slip After US-Japan Summit Boosts Dollar – Reuters
Most emerging Asian currencies inched lower, as the dollar held firm after a closely watched two-day US-Japan summit over the weekend did not unnerve markets by mentioning currency policy.
The AUD/USD has yet to climb back above 77 cent level, running into a wall of sellers whenever it ventures towards that level.